If Hillary Becomes President

Hillary Rodham Clinton

My post last week, If Trump Becomes President, hypothesized the impact of a Donald administration on the work world and HR. Historically, Democratic administrations have used the courts and their own executive powers to pass final rules and regulations that keep us HR folk very busy (see: ACA, FLSA, FMLA, ADA, etc…).

I can probably sum up a Hillary Clinton presidency like this: “more of the same”. While Hillary has her own agenda and plans, she will continue the policies and programs passed by the Obama administration.

Headline: Clinton Administration Creates “Good Paying” Jobs for Americans. Like Trump, Hillary promises to create jobs for Americans. She promises “good-paying” jobs  in an effort to strengthen the middle class. Based on her platform, Hillary intends to create jobs in the public sector, in the energy and tech sectors and also by increasing American manufacturing. Extrapolating further, Clinton’s initiatives to build and reinforce the country’s infrastructure signal a potential increase in construction jobs. And yes, these will be union jobs HR folks because, as Hillary states, “When Unions are strong, America is strong”. For those HR professionals already experiencing difficulty filling those energy and tech jobs due to a lack of skilled talent, Hillary hopes to increase your talent pool by “creating a life-long learning system better tailored to 21st century jobs”.

Headline: “HillaryHealth” expands ACA, Medicaid and reduces Americans out-of-pocket health spending. Will we still refer to the Affordable Care Act as “Obamacare” when he’s no longer in office? No? Then I propose “Hillary Health”. If Hillary plans to shore up and expand the Affordable Care Act, she will have her hands full as insurers stage an exodus from state-run exchanges. In a Hillary-led world, perhaps she will make administration less complicated both on those who need health care but also on HR professionals and Benefits Administrators.

Headline: DOL Goes Gangbusters on FLSA Enforcement. The FLSA’s new overtime rules are passed by Hillary and crew but, to throw a bone to small businesses, are implemented in a phased-in approach that also offsets the automatic indexing provision. The Department of Labor Wage and Hour Division commits additional resources making overtime compliance its number #1 priority. HR departments around the country must get smarter on the FLSA and begin to document the reasons why jobs are classified exempt or non-exempt. These changes force HR professionals to strategize on compensation with a future-facing approach and use “non-traditional” workers (i.e. gig workers, part-time and job shares) to reduce company expenditures.

Headline: Within 4 years, Clinton Narrows the Pay Gap . Hillary narrows the pay gap by passing the Paycheck Fairness Act. Wages and pay decisions become more transparent. All private employers are prohibited from asking job applicants about prior salary history and are prohibited from verifying wages via references. Further, HR drives employers to compliance by creating compensation philosophies, conducting annual compensation surveys, reviewing compliance annually and recommending salary adjustments based on internal equity. HR Departments create forms and documentation to back-up pay change decisions. HR Professionals support publishing salaries of employees to further transparency. HR Departments across the U.S. should boost their comp knowledge and prepare to invest in internal data analytics around discretionary and non-discretionary pay.

Headline: Paid Family and Medical Leave for All U.S.-based Employees. While Trump promises to pass paid maternity leave, this proposal seems to reinforce archaic gender stereotypes and familial roles. Hillary promises paid Family and Medical Leave for working Americans, and thus families no longer have to choose job or family member or their own health. While a triumph indeed for all Americans, it will be long overdue. Out of the 193 countries in the U.N., the United States is the only high-income, developed country without paid parental leave.

Headline: The Expansion of Federally Protected Classes. Under a Clinton administration, I highly anticipate the addition of federally protected classes and continued empowerment of the EEOC to enforce anti-discrimination, anti-harassment and anti-retaliation laws. HR Professionals would be served well to brush off that harassment prevention training and deliver it annually.

Headline: Hillary Nominates Obama as Replacement for Justice Scalia. Considering his political and legal career, Obama seems like a likely nominee to replace Justice Scalia. This will get interesting. There is a current contingent of Republicans that are in favor of ticket-splitting, they will vote Clinton for President but split the ticket, voting for Republican House and Senate Candidates. Republicans hope this strategy will moderate Hillary’s “liberal agenda”. A left-leaning Court + Executive Branch could equal a very active 4 years for HR departments across the country.

Hillary has a reputation for getting shit done. So I’m not betting against her. If she is elected President, I suspect that this will be an opportunity for HR practitioners to demonstrate our value to the organization as a strategic business leader and consultant.

If Trump Becomes President

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The world of HR is inextricably linked to and highly influenced by politics in America. As the country and the world turn their attention to the outcome of the U.S. general election on November 8th (get out there and vote folks), HR practitioners also attempt to predict how the new presidential administration will create and shape policy that impacts the world of work for the next 4 years.

For funsies, let’s imagine Donald J. Trump is elected president, shall we. For this experiment, we’ll make several assumptions. 1) Assume Trump does everything outlined on his platform,  2)Assume he gets no push-back from things as trivial as the balance of powers- congress and courts and 3)Assume we don’t get blown up first by North Korea because Trump goes on a 3am Tweetstorm fat-shaming Kim Jong-un.

Headline: Trump creates 25 million new jobs. Based on the first presidential debate, I’m assuming Trump is speaking about the manufacturing jobs that were off-shored within the last few decades to countries like China and Mexico. So, the jobs he is talking about “creating” are not the knowledge-based, white-collar, high-paying jobs that prop up the middle class these are blue-collar, low-paying manual labor jobs. But don’t worry HR, these won’t be unionized jobs so no need to brush up on the National Labor Relations Act. Just dust off your work comp and OSHA knowledge.

Headline: Trump repeals Obamacare. Not only does Trump repeal Obamacare lifting HR from the burden of stupid 1095 administration, he also does not expand Medicare and probably relieves employers from the burden altogether of actually providing medical benefits to employees. Trump Industries subsequently announces the creation of a new business venture, health insurance.

Headline: Trump Administration Repeals FLSA Changes. Encouraging business and job growth by limiting Federal government regulations Trump eliminates the increase to the FLSA salary test and all other proposed changes thereby keeping all FLSA provisions as they were written in 1938. Further, Trump repeals the Federal Minimum Wage and leaves the States to determine their own minimum wage. Federal prevailing wages on government contracts are also eliminated.

Headline: Year 2020-Women Still Earn Less for Equal Work. Trump has laid out zero plans for closing the gender pay gap during his campaign. Given his convictions to allow businesses to run unfettered, the Trump Administration will not be using its executive powers to make sure that women and people of color earn the same as white males for equal effort, equal work. HR will continue to have to document pay disparities to prevent EEOC claims of discrimination.

Headline: Women Earn Less but Get Paid Maternity Leave. While Trump mostly favors de-regulation and repealing Federal Agency regulations and final rules, he does favor paid maternity leave. Trump will pass a bill requiring employers to provide 6-full weeks of paid maternity leave, a program that looks similar to the State of California’s already existing Paid Family Leave (PFL). And sorry men, you are excluded. HR must be ready to administer leave in conjunction with FMLA and other State paid leave laws.

Headline: Trump Nominates Putin as Replacement for Justice Scalia. Don’t say it’s not possible. You are also the same person who thought Trump would never, could never be the f-in Republican Nominee for President of these United States.

During the Obama Administration, HR has had to remain on the forefront of the ever-changing political landscape. HR has been on the frontline partnering with the business, educating leadership and ensuring complicity with new laws. We grumbled, we whined, we bitched through it all. But now, as an HR practitioner, I feel stronger and I feel like we made the workplace better for employees. It feels like it would be a shame to roll all of that back under a Trump Administration.